Monday Market Open

Gents,

Bit of a late one tonight. I sat there watching crude bleed out all afternoon and completely lost the plot on getting this out to you.

The weekend was nuts for markets. After two weeks of getting bent over by a war premium, and then the shooting just quietly stopped. Over a weekend. No signing ceremony, no handshake in Switzerland, no press conference. Just two quiet nights and six bucks off a barrel.

Today: Oil got taken out back and dealt with. The Dow ripped 262 points. Nvidia dropped 5% after talks began for a $250B OpenAI data center financing.

And the TSX? Record fucking high. We’ll get to that.

Fed on Wednesday. 4 of the Mag 7 report within 48 hours. Strap in. It’s a big week.

Commodities & Market Indices

News
The Recap

• The Mag 7 lost ~$800 billion of value Thursday on spending forecasts.

• The US paused strikes on Iran over the weekend. Tehran says it holds fire as long as Washington does. Shit’s either the beginning of the end or another Trump fake.

• Alphabet ($GOOGL) got taken behind the shed for pushing quarterly FCF negative and raising 2026 CAPEX from $195 to $205 billion. Still beat revenue though.

• Intel ($INTC) posted adjusted EPS of $0.42 against $0.19 expected, more than double, ripped to $112, then bled 19% back to $91. Beat the number, ate the candle.

• Brent gapped down and settled at $85.87, down 6.3% on the day, after touching $102 on Thursday.

• Ten year yields fell to 4.65% and the dollar got sold against every G10 peer on the board.

• Trump's new Section 301 tariffs went live Friday, 10% to 12.5% on nearly every US import. Energy products carved out.

• Up here the TSX closed at an all time high. 

• Shopify jumped 11.6% after RBC called them “defensible” against AI

Canada had a better day than Wall Street.

Write that down, it doesn’t happen often.

The Week Ahead
Big Tech’s Moment of Truth

We got four days and more ways to get your face ripped off.

• Tuesday - Case-Shiller home prices, Conference Board consumer confidence & the FOMC meeting kicks off.

• Wednesday - Fed decision at 2pm ET, Warsh presser at 2:30. Hold is the base case at $0.73 on Kalshi, and 64% on Bloomberg. Then Microsoft ($MSFT) and Meta ($META) after the bell.

• Thursday - Advance Q2 GDP and jobless claims in the morning. Then Apple ($AAPL) and Amazon ($AMZN) after the close.

• Friday - June core PCE, expected somewhere around 3.4% on the core. Employment Cost Index, Exxon ($XOM) and Chevron ($CVX) all in the morning.

Now You Know 
The Fed’s Watching, Miners are Waiting

Everybody’s going to spend this week talking about oil and the Fed. Us included.

Today though, we’re talking inflation.

The June Fed minutes flagged AI infrastructure demand as a price driver for tech products and electricity. Central banks don’t put electricity in the minutes for fun.

Yet, Alphabet guided CAPEX to $205 billion and went free cash flow negative. Georgia Power just signed a 25 year power contract with OpenAI backed by federal loans. Nvidia is talking about a $250 billion OpenAI data centre guarantee and a $500 billion partnership with SK Group. Nine of eighteen Fed officials now expect a hike this year. In March that number was zero. September is priced near 80%.

Where does the money actually go though?

Into the boring shit. Copper, switchgear, transformers, turbines, uranium and gas that keeps a building full of GPUs from going dark.

Our take: Google can stand up a data centre in <2 years. Copper mines aren’t producing in that time. Try 10-15 years from discovery to first pour, assuming the permits go your way and the local government stays onside.

Demand can triple on an earnings call, supply can’t. That gap is the entire trade.

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That’s all Folks

Hey, thank you for checking out Monday Market Open. I hope you enjoyed it, learned something new, and are feeling ready to attack the week. Keep an eye on your inbox for more Alpha coming your way this week.

Cheers,