Monday Market Open

Gents, Iggy here. It’s been a minute.

But these markets got me feeling jumpy, there’s a special window for us idiots to make generational wealth, & I thought I would come say a thing or two.

The biggest risk you are taking right now is not taking one. The fucking markets are still smashing all-time highs.

I feel bad for you, poor bastards in cash.

Markets
Indicies and Commodities

(As of Monday, April 27, Close)

• Gold -- $4,689 (-1.08%)

• Silver -- $76.00 (-0.50%)

• Copper -- $6.00/lb (+0.06%)

• WTI Crude -- $96.44 (+2.16%)

• S&P 500 -- 7,173.91 (+0.12%) ATH

• Nasdaq -- 24,887.10 (+0.20%) ATH

• Dow Jones -- 49,167.79 (-0.13%)

• TSX -- 33,818.19 (-0.25%)

News
The Recap

• Trump cancelled peace talks in Islamabad, Iran said it won't negotiate under a naval blockade

• Iran submitted a new proposal through Pakistani mediators to reopen Hormuz -- nuclear talks deferred

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh all-time highs anyway. The market doesn’t give a flying fuck about geopolitics anymore

• NVDA +4%, Micron +5.6%, Alphabet +1.8% -- chips carrying the whole thing on their back again

• Domino's Pizza ($DPZ) dropped 10.5% after missing same-store sales badly. Turns out you bears are too poor to order pizza.

• Bill Ackman's Pershing Square IPO targeting $5B -- pricing Tuesday

News
What’s on The Horizon

• Tuesday -- Bank of Japan policy decision. Nikkei hit a fresh record today (+1.38%), so BoJ better not fumble this.

• Wednesday -- Fed rate decision + Jerome Powell press conference (possibly his last as Chair before Kevin Warsh takes over). Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft all report. This is the biggest single day of earnings in years.

• Thursday -- ECB rate decision. Apple reports after close.

• Friday -- US jobs report for April. Markets will be watching for any sign inflation is getting worse.

Five of the Magnificent Seven report this week. Buckle up.

News
The Strait of Hormuz is closed, and Nobody Cares

Nine weeks.

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut for nine weeks. The IEA is calling it the largest energy supply shock on record. Fourteen and a half million barrels a day of Persian Gulf crude production - gone.

And yet the S&P closed at an all-time high today.

I'm not saying the market is wrong. The market is never wrong in the short run, it's just pricing the most likely outcome. Right now, the most likely outcome is that someone blinks, Hormuz reopens, and we all move on.

But what if they don't blink?

WTI closed at $96 today. Goldman just revised their Brent target for Q4 to $90 -- and that's up from $80 before the conflict, nearly $30 higher than the pre-shock forecast. Oil at $96 with the Strait still shut, a Fed meeting Wednesday, and five Mag Seven reports dropping in 72 hours.

That's a lot of variables in a small window.

But I actually don’t give a shit about the MAG 7 earnings. Here's what I'm watching. Energy stocks on the TSX are the one pocket of the market that actually makes sense right now. Canadian Natural (CNQ) and Suncor (SU) were both up today while the broader TSX bled. When the market's confused and geopolitical risk is elevated, Canadian energy producers with low break-evens and no Hormuz exposure are exactly where you want to be.

While the broader market shits its pants, the opportunity in the critical commodities that keep the world spinning only becomes more attractive.

Energy, Metals, Mining.

Not financial advice. But I'm watching those sectors closely this week.

The chips rally, the AI trade, the Mag Seven - that stuff is real, and it's not going away. But oil at $96 with a closed Strait and a Fed that's stuck between inflation and a slowing economy is the story nobody's pricing correctly.

Pay attention this week.

Legal
Disclaimer

This newsletter is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The content published here reflects the personal opinions of the author only. We have not been compensated, directly or indirectly, in any form including cash, stock, or any other consideration, to mention, feature, or discuss any of the tickers, companies, or securities referenced in this issue. We do not hold positions in any of the securities mentioned at the time of publication. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in small-cap and junior resource stocks involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of your entire investment. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We are not registered investment advisors. We're gamblers, not advisors.