Monday Market Open

You ever get dropped, bleeding, everyone counting you out, then stand up grinning and start swinging again? That’s what it means to fight. That’s what it means to stay alive in the game.

Markets, like fights, test your will more than your skill. They’ll fake you out, push you to the edge, make you doubt yourself. But the ones who last don’t tap, they adapt. They take the hit, reset, and keep coming forward.

Every round, every session, every pullback: it’s just another chance to prove you’re still standing. The crowd can doubt. The tape can bleed. But the fight never ends till you say it does.

US Govt
SHUTDOWN DEAL FINALLY REACHED

The shutdown saga’s finally crawling toward the finish line. The Senate passed the bill, the House is up next, and the President’s pen is already warming up.

Markets love it—green across the board as traders price in the government getting back to business. No more frozen data, no more uncertainty headlines clogging up the feed. The vibe is “get this over with so we can trade again.”

If it closes this week like expected, we’ll finally get the macro calendar running again—CPI, payrolls, all the stuff the algos have been starving for. And with that, volatility could actually normalize a bit. Relief rallies always feel good, but the question now is—do we sustain or fade it?

Macro
SUPREME COURT SET TO STRIKE DOWN TARIFFS

The next landmine is tariffs. The Supreme Court’s decision is due soon, and the odds look tilted toward striking them down. Polymarket’s pricing just 24% that Trump’s tariff setup survives.

But even if they do get nuked, don’t think he’s out of ammo—he’s already talking about using other executive levers to slap tariffs back on anyone who looks at him sideways.

Translation: this isn’t a clean binary event. If the Court blocks him, he pivots. If they don’t, he calls it a “win” and doubles down. Either way, expect some noise around trade-sensitive sectors—semis, industrials, autos. Short-term chaos, long-term same game: Trump wants control of the trade narrative going into 2026.

Market Analysis
BULL MARKET CHECKLIST: UPDATE

The bull’s still alive, but he’s breathing heavier. We’re 7 for 8 bullish on the big-picture checklist. The long-term trend is intact—the S&P 500’s holding above key support, the 200-day moving average’s been trending up for over 130 sessions, and market breadth still looks solid. Momentum and risk-on indicators are fine. It’s all still structurally bullish.

But the mood shifted. The Fear vs. Strength model turned red for the first time since April, that’s the crowd stepping off the gas. When people stop buying strength, rallies lose velocity. It doesn’t mean reversal—it just means conviction slipped. It’s that uneasy stage of the bull where price action’s fine, but confidence wobbles underneath.

Keep your focus on participation and credit spreads: those will tell you if the cracks turn into fractures. Until then, the trend’s your friend, even if he’s looking tired.

Picks of the Week
The VHLA BIG MONEY BASKET

Forget the penny-ante plays—this market’s being carried by the big liquid names. You want to dance where the flow’s real: AMD, ASML, NVDA, PLTR, MU, TSLA. These are the names that actually matter right now. They’re the engines of every algo basket, and if they hold, the market holds.

The thinner names? They’re in chop city. You’ll see fades and fakeouts all over the place. That doesn’t mean ignore them—just treat them like they owe you nothing. NBIS, CRDO, PATH, ASTS—solid setups if they base and hold Friday’s lows, but don’t marry them. A lot of those still have earnings coming, which means catalysts or cliffs.

Stay patient. When the big caps rest, the money rotates into mid-tier momentum. That’s when you strike.