Monday Market Open

In a world where everyone’s pretending they’ve got it all figured out — perfect charts, perfect conviction, perfect logic — the only real sanity left is in embracing the madness. Markets don’t reward the calm or the balanced; they reward the ones unhinged enough to see through the illusion. The ones who understand that order is just chaos in costume.

Out here, the real edge isn’t being “rational”… it’s being willing to dance in the fire while everyone else panics about the smoke. The crowd spends their days chasing certainty; the winners learn to thrive in the absurdity.

Because in this game?
Being crazy isn’t the problem — it’s the strategy.
And the deeper you lean into the madness, the clearer the market starts to look.

Market Overview
THE BOUNCE WE’VE BEEN WAITING FOR?

Markets came in today acting like they finally found their missing serotonin receptors. Green across the board, tech leading, vibes restored—for now. 

GOOGL was the clear heavyweight, ripping like it had something to prove after Gemini 3 and the TPU flex turned into the storyline of the month. It dragged the whole complex with it, even waking up NVDA long enough to stop the bleeding.

But don’t confuse motion with direction. We’re still in that awkward no-man’s-land range where chop thrives and confidence dies. Until SPY and QQQ reclaim the big-boy moving averages—the 20, 50, 100, and backtest them without faceplanting—this bounce is just a flirtation. Save the confetti, keep the helmet on.

Fiber Optics
OPTICS ARE PRINTING MONEY

Everyone’s yelling about GPUs, accelerators, TPUs, model weights, and compute, but the market quietly told you today who the real winners are: the optics gang. When data centers start scaling like hydrants in July, someone has to supply the lasers, interconnects, photonics, and all the weird hardware nobody brags about on Twitter.

Lumentum ($LITE), Celestica ($CLS), Coherent ($COHR) — these things didn’t just go green; they detonated. That type of price action is pure institutional rotation, the kind that says “this is where the real margins are hiding.”

This is the AI trade’s final form: not just the shiny tech everyone debates, but the invisible infrastructure underneath. When capital shifts to the plumbing, it means the theme isn’t dying — it’s maturing. If anything, today screamed that AI still has juice… it’s just flowing into corners nobody expected.

The Fed
FED WILLIAMS SAVES MARKET?

One speech. That’s all it took.

NY Fed President John Williams floated the magic words: softening employment risks, cooling inflation pressures, room for policy to ease if needed. And the market reacted like someone whispered “free drinks” at a hedge fund Christmas party.

Futures went from “maybe a cut, but don’t count on it” to “we’re basically pricing in a December blessing.” Odds ripped above 70% in a single session. Suddenly the December meeting is shaping up like a reality TV showdown — everyone screaming, everyone convinced they’re right, everyone praying the Fed fixes their bags.

Degen Trades
FOR ALL THE PSYCHOS: SHORT NVDA

This isn’t for the disciplined. This isn’t for the cautious. This is for the traders with hearts made of asbestos and the emotional stability of a blackjack table.

The idea floating around the darker corners of the tape: short NVDA.

Why? Because the chart looks… off. NVDA is now sitting under every key MA except the 200, and the 200 is creeping closer like a horror-movie villain. Pair that with the Google TPU hype that suddenly made some funds rethink their “NVIDIA is inevitable” stance, and you’ve got the first real cracks in a two-year narrative.

The degens are calling for a slide toward the 150 zone — a level that would shake out the weak hands and remind the world what volatility feels like.

But make no mistake: shorting the AI king is like trying to choke out a grizzly. If you mistime it, you get folded in half instantly. Size with discipline or don’t play at all.