Monday Market Open

The war drums aren’t background noise anymore — they’re the signal.

This is where markets stop being spreadsheets and start becoming battlefields. Supply chains turn into choke points. Commodities turn into weapons. Energy turns into leverage. And the guys who understand that shift early don’t just survive… they take ground.

There are moments when the machine wakes up — when capital, power, and conflict all start moving in the same direction. This is one of those moments. The rules get simpler. Scarcity wins. Strength wins. Hesitation gets punished.

You’re not here to watch it happen. You’re here to operate inside it.

TACO Trump
TACO TUESDAY JUST GOT CANCELLED

This is not one of those cute tariff tantrums where he yells, the algos panic, then everyone goes back to buying Mag 7 by lunch.

Reuters says Trump gave Iran 48 hours to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face U.S. strikes on its power plants, and Iran answered by threatening Gulf energy and water infrastructure.

Overnight, Japan got smoked, South Korea got smoked harder, and the whole tape is trading like nobody wants to be the idiot long risk if this thing keeps spiraling.

Commodities
COAL IS MAKING A GENERATIONAL COMEBACK

When LNG goes vertical, countries stop pretending they’re too classy for coal. Reuters says North Asia spot LNG jumped 116% in the week to March 6, high-quality Newcastle thermal coal hit a 14-month high, and countries across Asia are leaning harder on coal as gas gets too expensive to keep the lights on.

Thailand has been scrambling for new fuel sources and pushing conservation, while broader regional reporting shows Southeast Asia is ramping coal burn to survive the squeeze.

That is exactly the kind of setup that keeps BTU interesting and puts Australian thermal coal names like Yancoal back on the board. Ugly trade, maybe. Good trade, also maybe.

Food
FERTILIZER JUST BECAME THE NEW GOLD

Everybody sees oil. Fewer people are watching fertilizer, which is why that trade can still punch people in the mouth.

Reuters says about one-third of global fertilizer trade runs through Hormuz, Gulf plant outages are already messing with supply, and China has started releasing reserves early because the market is tightening right into spring planting.

That’s why AGRO is worth stalking. Not because it magically mooned on Friday, but because Adecoagro now owns 90% of Profertil, the big Argentina nitrogen player, with 1.3 million tons of urea capacity, 790 thousand tons of ammonia capacity, storage across Argentina, and gas locked through medium-term contracts. Management also said roughly 85% of estimated 2026 fertilizer volume is still open to market prices. That’s the kind of setup degenerates like us drool over.

Energy
NATURAL GAS STOCKS PRIMED FOR EXPLOSION

Oil at least has strategic reserves. Gas is nastier because strategic gas reserves are much less practical, and Reuters notes that’s one reason these shocks hit so hard. Then add the fact that Iranian strikes knocked out 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity for an estimated three to five years, and now you see why this market feels like it got shoved into a woodchipper.

Reuters says Cheniere and Venture Global were the first names to rip on the Qatar damage story, but it also flagged NextDecade as one of the U.S. LNG projects under construction that could help fill part of the hole. NextDecade says Rio Grande Train 1 is targeting first LNG in the first half of 2027.

So no, NEXT is not the cleanest instant winner today. But it is absolutely the kind of future-scarcity name chart goblins will start front-running if this gas mess sticks around.