Monday Market Open

Oil Dumps, Dow Rips To A Record, Canada Catches Strays, SpaceX On Deck

Author

VHLA Media
August 03, 2026

Monday Market Open

Dear Winner,

Hairy weekend bleeding into the shitshow that is this week.

Oil's puking, Amazon casually clipped three trillion, Palantir pulled off the impossible and Japan just torched $32B to save its own currency.

For our hungover Canadian readers, hope you had a good long weekend. You’re walking off the dock and into Mogadishu.

Let's get into it.

MMO Tape -Aug 3, 2026

THE TAPE

Where We Closed

As of Monday, Aug 3 • 7:00 PM ET • TSX closed, Civic Holiday

INDICIESLASTCHGDAY
S&P 5007,600.50+110.78
+1.5%
Nasdaq25,913.90+540.05
+2.1%
Dow  RECORD53,178.41+693.38
+1.3%
US TREASURYSYIELDCHGBPS
10Y4.67%-1 bp
-1
30Y5.24%-5 bp
-5
CRUDELASTCHGDAY
WTI$79.62-$5.06
-5.97%
Brent$83.82-$4.11
-4.68%
METALSLASTCHGDAY
Gold$4,038.16-$4.85
-0.12%
Silver$56.86-$0.92
-1.60%
Copper$6.47+$0.04
+0.55%
CROSS-ASSETLASTCHGDAY
VIX15.86-0.13
-0.81%
DXY99.72-0.19
-0.19%

Green = up, red = down. VIX up shows green (fear's the trade). Sept hike odds ~63-68% into Friday's jobs number.

News
The Recap

  • Oil finally exhaled. Trump waved off a strike and floated talks, crude dumped.

  • Side deal: Iran and Oman are haggling a managed Hormuz route but nobody signed anything.

  • Amazon clipped $3 trillion. 

  • Canada caught strays on a day off. Long weekend, markets shut, and Trump still promised to tariff your wildfire smoke.

  • Palantir smoked it. Revenue ripped ~93% to $1.94B, ninth straight beat, and Karp hiked the full-year guide north of $8B. Up 14% after hours.

News
This week

Tuesday: Before the open it's $CAT, $MRK, $MCD and $PFE then JOLTS at 10.

After the bell is SpaceX’s 1st quarterly print and $AMD reports the same hour.

Wednesday: $LLY and $DIS before the bell.

Then ADP payrolls, ISM Services & the Treasury's refunding announcement.

Thursday:. SpaceX's lockup frees up 20% of eligible shares.

Jobless claims in the morning.

Friday: July Jobs, 8:30 ET. Consensus is ~83-91k, unemployment ticking to 4.3%.

Now You Know 
The Yen Will Be Your Problem

A Look Inside the BOJ

Alright this is expanding on today’s video. If you haven’t seen it yet, tap the blue text.

Today the Yen hit a 4 week high, while literally everything else on the planet rallied. 

That's not random.

Why? Tokyo performed a joint intervention with Washington for the first time since 2011. Fresh BOJ data out today shows they torched about $32 billion in a single session to do it. They won't hesitate to do it again.

Here's why you care. This carry trade unwinding would fuck up a lot.

For years the play was borrow Yen (cheap rates, falling currency), park it in US markets, pocket the spread. Fucking brilliant.

Now we're running in reverse. The Yen's climbing, borrowing costs are at 30-year highs, and those trades now bleed from both ends. Japan, the world's biggest holder of Treasuries, is forced to pawn them for cash.

Simply put: defending the yen = selling US bonds = pressure on the same 10-year yield the US is fighting.

Tonight the rally's already fading, with desks saying there's not much room past 155.

If it rolls back over, round two is live. Yikes…

Thank You
That’s all Folks

Hey, thank you for checking out Monday Market Open. I hope you enjoyed it, learned something new, and are feeling ready to attack the week. Keep an eye on your inbox for more Alpha coming your way this week.

Cheers,