Monday Market Open

Dear Reader,

It's June, summer's here, and markets just closed their best month since 2023.

What else can we ask for? Blue skies, green markets, life's good.

Now let's dive into the week ahead and what the fuck is going on in this rollercoaster of a market, and how we can attempt to navigate this shit.

Markets
Indicies & Commodities

• Gold -- $4,455 (-1.90%)

• Silver -- $74.61 (-1.67%)

• Copper -- $6.45/lb (flat)

• WTI Crude -- $92.00 (+6.00%)

• S&P 500 -- ~7,580 (-0.08%)

• Nasdaq -- ~26,970 (-0.08%)

• Dow Jones -- ~50,800 (-0.23%)

• TSX -- 34,499.46 (-0.78%)

News
The Recap

• US and Iran reached a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire - Hormuz tensions eased.

• S&P 500 closed May up 5%, Nasdaq up more than 8% for the month. Tech carried the whole thing

• Dell ($DELL) reported earnings and went nuclear - up 33% in a single session, best day on record

• Nvidia crossed $5 trillion market cap again. The AI trade is not slowing down

• Canada's GDP contracted for a second straight quarter - BoC expected to hold rates at June 10 meeting

• WTI oil fell nearly 17% in May as ceasefire hopes eased supply fears

News
What’s Happening Right NOW

Iran just halted peace talks with the US in protest of Israel's continued operations in Lebanon and Gaza. That's why oil is up 6% as you read this, and gold and silver are getting fucked.

Classic stagflation fear trade.

The market opened lower, but tech is holding it up, with Computex Taipei announcements giving Nvidia, Microsoft, and HP a lift this morning.

Trump posted on Truth Social that "it will all work out well." Markets are pricing maybe 50/50 on that.

News
What's on the Horizon

• Tuesday -- ISM Manufacturing data. Canada's economy is sputtering and this matters for the TSX

• Wednesday -- ADP private payrolls. Salesforce reports earnings

• Thursday -- Bank of Canada rate decision. Hold expected but tone matters given two straight quarters of contraction

• Friday -- US Jobs Report for May. The big one. If the labor market is still hot with oil back above $90, the Fed rate hike conversation gets very real very fast

June is a different animal than May. The easy money from the ceasefire rally has been made. Now we find out if the fundamentals hold.

Alpha
The Secret Sauce Gold Pulled Back. Junior Miners Haven't Even Started.

Gold is down almost 2% today. Iran blew up the peace talks again, and oil spiked, which sounds like it should be good for gold, but when oil spikes, rate hike fears spike too, and rate hikes are bad for non-yielding assets like gold. So it nuked.

Here's what matters, though.

Gold is still up over 31% year over year. Still sitting above $4,400. The all-time high was $5,595 back in January before the Iran war hit.

And the junior gold miners? Most of them haven't moved at all.

The metal is up 31% year over year, and most exploration stocks are still sitting where they were twelve months ago.

That gap closes. It always does. And when it closes in junior mining, it doesn't close slowly. It hits like 4 cut waters on an empty stomach.

Drill season is fully underway right now. The Abitibi, the Greenstone Belt, the James Bay Lowlands - rigs are turning. Assay labs are backed up. Results are coming.

If you're not paying attention to quality early-stage gold explorers right now with drill programs in proven belts, you're going to watch this move from the sidelines.

Don't do that.

Legal
Disclaimer

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The content published here reflects the personal opinions of the author only. We have not been compensated, directly or indirectly, in any form including cash, stock, or any other consideration, to mention, feature, or discuss any of the tickers, companies, or securities referenced in this issue. We do not hold positions in any of the securities mentioned at the time of publication. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in small-cap and junior resource stocks involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of your entire investment. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We are not registered investment advisors. We're just guys who like markets.