Monday Market Open

Dear Winner,

Friday's jobs report actually LOST jobs and the market threw a party, because no jobs means no hike. Then Trump spent the weekend telling Axios he is "only semi-negotiating" with Iran, crude ripped 5% today, and the whole hike debate is right back on the table.

That is the week in one sentence: weak jobs versus $87 Brent, and CPI lands Wednesday to break the tie. Read this tonight, trade it tomorrow. Here's the tape.

News
The Recap

USA - July payrolls fell 23,000 against expectations for +83,000. September hike odds got cut from 55% to around 43%, and the S&P closed the week at a record 7,757.

USA - Berkshire's weekend filing showed it turned net BUYER of stocks for the first time in 15 quarters, roughly $20B worth, cash pile down to $365.5B. When that money finally moves, pay attention.

Iran - Trump told Axios Sunday he is "only semi-negotiating." Monday, Tehran answered with its full list: lift the blockade, pull US forces, drop sanctions, unfreeze assets, pay war damages. Crude ripped 5%, Brent at $87.72, and the SPR is under 300M barrels for the first time since 1983.

China - Weekend data showed consumer AND producer inflation slowed in July, and copper imports fell 11.5% year over year.

USA - $NVDA fell 3% on reports of a $500B infrastructure funding package with Apollo and Blackstone. $INTC dropped 4% on a $15B stock offering.

Canada - StatsCan printed +75K July jobs and the TSX keeps grinding record highs on the commodity bid with Gold's best week in seven months.

News
THE WEEK AHEAD

Tomorrow (Tuesday):

• $CRWV reports after close, the AI-capex tell of the week

• $LITE after close, optics read on the datacenter build

• No major data

Wednesday:

• July CPI, 8:30 AM ET, the main event. Consensus 3.4% headline vs June's 3.5%

• $CSCO, $COHR, $NBIS, Cerebras after the bell

• Tencent reports, the China read

Thursday:

• July PPI

• Fed speakers Hammack and Barkin, first FedSpeak since the jobs shock

• $AMAT after close finishes the chip slate

Friday:

• July retail sales, first look at the Q3 consumer

• UMich sentiment

Opinion 
Golden Age?

Traders didn’t fade gold last week (it’s best in 7 months) and we hit $4,359 an ounce, which sent the TSX up to another record high on Friday.

Our favourite miners once again got Cactus Club patios nationwide bumping post market… this time for reasons other than the Peach ‘Linis and angel waitresses… they don’t have to give a fuck about Nvidia anymore. Capital is rotating back into the oldest trade in the book, and it’s working.

Why? Shit’s crazy in the world.

So Wednesday's CPI is July data, and since oil got taken behind the barn on ceasefire hopes the print likely comes in cool, doves pop champagne, CNBC runs the "inflation is dead" headline, and amidst the celebration no one cares that crude just put 5% back on TODAY.

The relevant oil for the Fed isn't in Wednesday's number. It’s sitting in a tanker outside Hormuz waiting for August's. In our opinion, that’s gonna be a rough one.

Long story short, our take is that a cool CPI print this week plus hot crude is a trolley problem where gold is nowhere near the tracks.

Fed hikes into an economy that just fired 23,000 people? Gold works. Hormuz stays shut and oil reignites inflation? Gold works.

Where I sit: watching gold, not chasing it, and watching Brent and the 10-year for the turn. Same chain that rugged everyone in July: oil up, yields up, long-duration tech gasping for air. You might have to go back. The smart money already is.

^{_{Thank You}}
That’s all Folks

Hey, thank you for checking out Monday Market Open. I hope you enjoyed it, learned something new, and are feeling ready to attack the week. Keep an eye on your inbox for more Alpha coming your way this week.

Cheers,