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Monday Market Open
Dear Winner,
Testing out morning sends… let me know how it lands.
S&P’s on a three peat, small caps at all-time highs, the VIX asleep at 2026 lows. Then Friday morning the government casually shits in our collective cereal by revealing a 0.6% fall in retail sales… the worst drop in over a year.
The market's response? Down 0.2%. Barely a shrug.
Which sets up a “beautiful” week: Home Depot, Target, Lowe's, TJX and Walmart all report, the Fed minutes drop Wednesday, and we find out whether Friday was noise or the first crack in the whole soft-landing story.
Let’s get into the trenches.
Another Week
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News
The Recap
USA - July retail sales fell 0.6%, the worst drop in over a year, 1 year inflation expectations jumped up to 4.3%.
USA - 10Y rose 6 bps Friday to 4.70%, close to a 19-month high, after cool CPI and PPI killed the September hike. The S&P slipped 0.2% off Thursday's record, Russell 2000 closed at an all-time high.
USA - $AMD ripped 6.5% Friday on a $4.75B senior note sale that settles Monday. $SNDK caught a JPMorgan upgrade with a $2,250 target.
Canada - The TSX dipped 0.1% to 36,730 after 5 straight up days and a record close Thursday. Loonie firmed to 72.06 cents USD, Miners did the lifting again.
Iran - Tehran's foreign minister said Iran isn’t willing to restart talks. Hormuz traffic is still a fraction of pre-war levels, and Trump wants it to be a US territory now.
Middle East - To push the Gaza plan forward US envoys met Egyptian, Qatari and Turkish in Cairo today. Hamas officials like most of it, but Netanyahu already rejected the plan and they’re meeting tomorrow a.
Crypto - $BTC drifted near $63K, below its key moving averages and the Senate's crypto market structure bill was pushed to mid-September.
News
THE WEEK AHEAD
Monday:
Empire State manufacturing, 8:30 AM ET
NAHB homebuilder sentiment, 10:00 AM ET
$HTHT before the bell, $FN and $XP after. $AMD's $4.75B note sale settles
Tuesday:
Housing starts and import prices, 8:30 AM ET
$HD before the bell opens retail week, Street at $4.73 EPS
$BIDU and $KLAR before, $KEYS and $TOL after
Wednesday:
FOMC minutes, 2:00 PM ET
$TGT, $LOW, $TJX, $ADI and $EL before the bell
$COTY after close
Thursday:
Jobless claims and Philly Fed, 8:30 AM ET
$WMT before the bell, estimates at $0.74 EPS on $186.9B.
$BABA and $DE alongside
$ROST after close
Friday:
S&P Global flash PMIs, manufacturing and services
Quiet close before Jackson Hole
Opinion
160 Not So Good…
The most important number on the planet right now is 160. That's dollar-yen, and this morning it's at 159.23.
The yen's problem isn’t too complicated. The US 2-year pays 4.17%, Japan’s pays 1.696% (a multi decade high) as of this AM.
If 160 breaks suddenly we have the largest treasury buyer at the table selling into a long end where the US 30-year just cleared an auction at 5.22%, its highest in 25 years.
Their currency crisis becomes our yield problem overnight… it's the same chain that rugged everyone in July: yields up, long-duration tech gasping for air, Mag 7 bleeding because of a currency you've never held.
Where I sit: watching 160, not trading it. The cleaner tell is the US 2-year, if it rolls over the carry dies on its own and the yen fixes itself.
Set two alerts, 160 on dollar-yen and 4.75% on the 10-year.
One firing is a headline. Both firing the same week is the story.
Thank You
That’s all Folks
Hey, thank you for checking out Monday Market Open. I hope you enjoyed it, learned something new, and are feeling ready to attack the week. Keep an eye on your inbox for more Alpha coming your way this week.
Cheers,
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