The Shit to Know Thursdays

Summer’s almost cooked and so is that no-lose bull run we’ve been coasting on. This week was a tequila-fueled roller coaster—more red days than a sorority house on cycle—and it finally feels like the “just buy anything and watch it moon” market is dying with the season.

That’s why you’ve got VHLA. If the game were simple, you wouldn’t need us. You’d park your cash, pound piña coladas, and let the line go up forever. But that ain’t reality anymore.

The backdrop’s still strong, but now it’s about selection and risk management. The days of blind gains are gone. Time to step the fuck up, sharpen the blade, and trade like killers, not like your fat uncle praying his meme stock comes back.

Market Update
ROLLER COASTER WEEK

What a roller coaster of a week. High-beta momo names got smoked as everyone’s sweating Jackson Hole tomorrow and Powell’s hawkish vibes.

AI names took extra heat after Sam Altman admitted the sector’s “a bit of a bubble” and an MIT report said 95% of companies using AI aren’t even making money on it. 

None of this should surprise you if you’ve been following along here: this is why we preach tight stops and never risking more than you can lose. Dangerous game we’re in.

With all of that being said, the trend still leans bullish. Pull-backs and red days are healthy for a bull market, even though we have almost forgotten what those are these days.

Reversal
STOP, HAMMER-TIME

Wednesday’s session ended with what looked like capitulation from the bears, and we got some beautiful hammer candles across our watchlist.

Names like $PLTR, $TEM, $RKLB look ripe for a pump over the next couple days. That said, don’t get cocky—the easy gains from earlier this summer are gone. Trading just got harder.

Federal Reserve
JACKSON HOLE CHEAT SHEET

Four ways this can shake out:

• Full surrender: Powell waves the white flag, September cut locked in, lower terminal. (0% odds)

• Dovish-neutral: Supports two cuts, one in September. Odds back to 100% for Sept, yields drop. (5% chance)

• Hawkish-neutral: Data decides. Sept odds fade toward 50%, rest of curve shrugs. (85% chance)

• Hawkish AF: Sept cut explicitly off the table, big move down across the board. Powell mic drop, Fed independence flex. (10% chance)

Insurance
LEMONADE STAND

$LMND is one of the best long-term charts on the board: tight monthly base, volume picking up, and founder-led execution. The company runs a fully digital, AI-driven insurance platform covering renters, pets, homeowners, life, and auto.

Growth is strong, loss ratios improving, and cash burn shrinking as they scale. Still unprofitable, but the trend is toward breakeven.

Combine that with the chart setup, and it’s easy to see this name grinding back toward all-time highs in 2–3 years. A clean mix of tech story + technicals. The juice is ripe for the squeeze.