The Shit to Know Thursdays

The Dow just hit an all-time high. The Nasdaq got slapped. Oil is sitting near $95. Gold can't find its footing. Iran is still a mess. And SpaceX is about to do the biggest IPO in history.

Let’s dive into the shit to know this Thursday!

AI
Broadcom nuked the chip trade.

Broadcom ($AVGO) reported earnings after the bell Tuesday. Revenue came in at $22.19 billion - technically a miss versus the $22.27 billion analysts were expecting, but that's not why the stock tanked 15%. The real reason? CEO Hock Tan refused to raise the company's full-year AI chip guidance. Wall Street wanted him to bump the $100 billion target. He held the line. Markets threw a tantrum. The whole semiconductor sector got rugged with it - Intel, AMD, Arm Holdings, Qualcomm all bled out on Wednesday.

Here's the thing, though. The Dow hit an all-time high on the same day...

The AI trade ain’t dead yet, just a quick breather.

Economy
Jobless claims are creeping up.

225,000 new unemployment claims for the week ending May 30. That's up from 212,000 the week before and higher than the 215,000 economists were expecting. Layoff data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas also ticked up.

Nothing to panic about yet. But it's a trend worth watching, especially with tomorrow's May jobs report hitting the tape. The nerds are expecting solid growth. If the number comes in hot, rate hike expectations spike. If it misses, recession fears creep back in. Either way, Friday morning shit is gonna go down.

Geopolitics
Iran. Again.

The conflict has now spilled into Bahrain and Kuwait, the most serious escalation since the ceasefire took effect in early April. US and Iranian forces exchanged strikes again this week. Trump said Wednesday that progress in negotiations "could be achieved as early as this weekend."

Markets are taking that with about as much salt as a margarita rim.

WTI pulled back slightly today to $94.81 after a three-day rally. The EIA reported that US crude inventories dropped for a sixth consecutive week and are approaching minimum operating levels. That's the kind of shit that doesn't make headlines until it really matters - and then it really matters.

IPO
SpaceX is going public. June 12.

SpaceX confirmed it's targeting a $75 billion IPO on the Nasdaq on June 12. The biggest IPO in history. And here's the cherry on top - relaxed index inclusion rules mean SpaceX could end up in index funds fast, which means 401(k) boomers could be holding Elon's rocket company without ever clicking a single buy button.

June 12th, mark the date.

Commodities
Goldman says copper hits $13,735 a tonne.

Goldman Sachs raised their copper price target to $13,735 per tonne. Citi went further - they're calling $15,000 within a year, citing mine disruptions and supply chain stress from the Iran conflict.

Copper is at $6.45/lb right now. The world is finally waking up to the copper crisis. We have only been saying it for 3 years.

We’re balls deep. Run the numbers.

Watchlist
What To Watch Tomorrow

May's jobs report drops at 8:30 am ET. This is the one.

Unemployment is sitting at 4.3%, below the 10-year average, but the cracks are showing. If payrolls come in strong, inflation fears spike, and so do rate hike odds. If payrolls disappoint, growth fears take over. There's no clean outcome here.

Typical market behaviour in the big 26.

The end
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