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The Shit to Know Thursdays
Indexmaxxers today
Alright patriots, one more session before the weekend.
So, Japan’s still fucked, $500B in new AI credit facilities is absurd amid project cancellations across North America and Hormuz is a mystery.
Outside of that, the week wasn’t half bad. Two inflation prints punk’d us and became fuel for another extension of the bull run, S&P hit a record 7,800 while commodities and tech shot up in tandem.
Again, not great but it’s enough to drive a 90% chance of patio beers in my future… here’s why:
The Session
Market Indices & Commodities
| INDEX / ASSET | LAST | CHG | DAY |
| S&P 500 Record close, topped 7,800 intraday | 7,798.99 | +50.40 | +0.65% |
| Nasdaq | 26,803.03 | +215.40 | +0.81% |
| Dow Jones | 53,839.99 | +69.72 | +0.13% |
| Russell 2000 Record high Thursday | 3,067 | Record | |
| Brent Crude | $87.07 | -1.92 | -2.1% |
| WTI Crude | $81.25 | -1.83 | -2.2% |
| Gold 4th straight day above $4,400, 10-wk high | $4,441 | +0.3% | |
| Sept Hike Odds Down from ~50% pre-CPI | <40% | Falling |
Markets
Flesh Wounds
Two inflation prints in two days and both came in soft.
CPI 0.1% on the month, core at its slowest since 2021. PPI dead flat against a 0.2% forecast. The S&P closed at a record 7,798.99 and punched through 7,800 for the first time ever. BANG
What lit the fire?
Hike odds falling of. Moved to 40% for September, when it was 50% two days ago. The hawks just lost their whole argument ( according to the mob) in 48 hours.
And the kicker: the Treasury paid its highest 30-year yield in 25 years the same afternoon. Market didn't care.
Enjoy while it lasts…
Commodities
Gold’s Grounded
Oil sold off on Hormuz talk hopes. Gold didn't give back a dollar.
Basically, crude and war premiums are hot and cold with each other, while gold’s holding.
Desks took chips off the table without believing the strait gets fixed.
Fourth straight day above $4,400, ten-week highs, up almost 10% on the month as China’s accelerating their imports.
Rumours are saying it’s to launch an gold backed Renmimbi…or Xi wants to pull a full on Scrooge McDuck… Either way worth keeping on radar.
Looking Ahead
What to Watch
Friday, Aug 14, 8:30 AM ET July retail sales, the consumer read after two soft inflation prints
Friday, Aug 14, 10:00 AM ET Michigan consumer sentiment, preliminary August
Tonight after close $AMAT fiscal Q3, the chip-equipment verdict on AI capex
Aug 26 $NVDA earnings, the main event
Sept 15-16 FOMC meeting, hold odds now in the driver's seat
Thank You
That’s all Folks
Just one more fucking day, I can smell it…
